Understanding the Challenge of Net-Zero: Aviation's Net-Zero Dilemma

by Jonathan Bass August 1, 2024

The European Union must examine the challenges faced by Google and the aviation industry in achieving emissions goals by 2050. The real-life difficulties and currently available options make it unrealistic to expect other industries, with fewer resources, to meet these stringent obligations.

Air New Zealand's recent decision to abandon its 2030 emissions target highlights the significant obstacles the industry must overcome:

Limited Availability of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): The global supply of SAF is currently minuscule compared to the industry's overall fuel needs. Production is hindered by high costs, limited feedstock, and insufficient policy support.
Delayed Development of More Efficient Aircraft: Boeing Co. and Airbus SE, the industry giants, face production challenges and delays in delivering next-generation, fuel-efficient aircraft. Boeing, under pressure from regulators, has slowed output to improve quality. Airbus is so stretched it’s even turning down orders. Next-generation jets, which can consume 15%-20% less fuel, have years-long wait times for delivery. This forces airlines to continue operating older, less efficient planes for longer periods.
Economic Constraints: SAF is significantly more expensive than traditional jet fuel, making it a costly option for airlines. Additionally, the substantial investments required for infrastructure upgrades and new technologies pose financial challenges.

These factors have created a perfect storm for the aviation industry. Airlines like Air New Zealand are caught between the need to reduce emissions and the practical limitations of available technology and sustainable fuel. They have to fly older and dirtier planes for longer, while finding it almost impossible to fill them up with clean-burning fuel. The fact that SAF can be several times more expensive than conventional jet fuel doesn’t make it any easier for carriers to hit near-term carbon targets. As a result, many are struggling to meet their interim climate goals, raising concerns about the feasibility of achieving the broader 2050 target.

The implications of these challenges are far-reaching. If more airlines follow Air New Zealand's lead and abandon their interim targets, it could discourage investments in SAF production and hinder the development of necessary technologies. Ultimately, this could jeopardize the aviation industry's ability to reach its long-term goal of carbon neutrality.

To address these challenges, the industry, governments, and investors must collaborate to set realistic, achievable targets that encourage the development and production of SAF, invest in research and development for new technologies, and implement supportive policies. Without concerted efforts, the aviation sector's path to net-zero emissions remains unachievable. Failure to make the correct decisions risks leaving Europe without a secure supply of electricity and gas.