What If Trump Does Get It Right? The Future of Climate Policy Under a Trump Administration
A Trump presidency raises intriguing questions about the trajectory of international climate policy. While his first term was marked with the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and regulatory rollbacks, a second term will chart a different course—emphasizing pragmatic, economically driven solutions rather than sweeping global commitments. Investing in making proven technologies better while increasing the production of clean burning LNG.
Reevaluating Global Commitments
A Trump administration will prioritize realism over rhetoric. A central theme might be holding nations accountable for their pledges under the Paris Agreement. Countries like China, the world’s largest polluter, and India, a major emitter, would likely face calls for more stringent reporting and verification mechanisms. Trump’s rhetoric might focus on addressing the disparity between commitments and actions, particularly targeting China's expanding coal production despite the false narratives of their renewable energy investments.
Planting Solutions: The Trillion Trees Act
The Trillion Trees Act could play a pivotal role in reframing U.S. climate policy under Trump. By advocating for large-scale reforestation, his administration might present tree-planting initiatives as a bipartisan, tangible solution to sequestering carbon while enhancing biodiversity and combating deforestation globally. Programs inspired by this act could serve as models for international cooperation. For example, planting fruit trees globally will also solve the lack of food security around the globe. Trees are a cheap method in which to solve a multitude of problems.
Shipping and Manufacturing: Environmental Pragmatism
Shipping emissions, a critical but often overlooked component of global pollution, could emerge as a focus. Highlighting that just 15 large container ships produce more pollution than all the cars in the world combined underscores the urgency of addressing this sector. Trump's emphasis on reshoring manufacturing aligns with reducing shipping’s environmental footprint. Bringing production closer to the point of consumption not only lowers emissions but also strengthens domestic economies, presenting a win-win scenario. (https://www.industrytap.com/worlds-15-biggest-ships-create-more-pollution-than-all-the-cars-in-the-world/8182)
Reframing the Paris Climate Agreement
Trump’s criticism of the Paris Climate Agreement centers on its perceived inequities. A return to global climate talks might involve pushing for renegotiated terms that focus on equitable burden-sharing and enforceable commitments. By advocating for measurable outcomes rather than aspirational goals, the U.S. could reshape international climate frameworks to prioritize accountability and effectiveness. Moving away from LNG by 2050 is an unrealistic bet. Countries cannot afford to bet on technology that is not reliable, scalable, affordable and most importantly has not proven to be greener on a full lifecycle analysis. While we continue to look for new wheels, we must invest immediately on developing solutions that focus on existing technologies, that make them as clean as possible.
Tackling Deforestation
Deforestation in regions like Brazil, China, India and Southeast Asia exacerbates global carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. Trump’s administration might seek bilateral agreements or private-sector partnerships to address these issues. Programs emphasizing reforestation and sustainable land use could serve as practical solutions to a complex global challenge, reinforcing the U.S.’s role as a leader in realistic and pragmatic climate action.
Market-Driven Climate Solutions
Under a Trump administration, climate policy would likely leverage market forces to drive innovation and investment in better, realistic green technologies. Deregulation paired with targeted incentives for enhancing cleaner energy and efficiency upgrades in high-polluting industries, such as shipping, could position the U.S. as a leader in sustainable industrial practices.
Challenges and Opportunities
While Trump’s proposed shifts might attract supporters seeking accountability and economic pragmatism, they could also face resistance from nations and activists committed to the existing Paris framework. However, emphasizing tangible benefits, such as job creation and verifiable emissions reductions, might help bridge divides between developed and developing nations. While providing base load energy to nations that need to develop supply chain opportunities for their citizens.
As COP29 is over and the Biden Administration is in its final days, the world will watch to see whether the U.S., under Trump, can champion a vision that turns climate ambition into actionable outcomes. A Trump-led approach would undeniably challenge the status quo. By focusing on accountability, market-driven solutions, and pragmatic environmental initiatives, his administration could redefine the terms of global climate discussions. Whether this approach leads to progress or polarization will depend on its execution and international reception. However, it offers a thought-provoking alternative to traditional climate strategies, suggesting that a balance between economic growth and environmental stewardship might indeed be achievable.